A new report from Re/Max Canada reveals that condominium inventory has surged across major Canadian cities, as sellers have returned to the market anticipating increased buyer demand in late 2024 and early 2025.
The report, which examined condominium activity in seven key markets from January to August 2024, notes significant growth in condominium listings. Leading the way are Fraser Valley (up 58.7 per cent), Greater Toronto (52.8 per cent), Calgary (52.4 per cent) and Ottawa (44.5 per cent), with more modest gains seen in Edmonton (17.7 per cent), Halifax (8.1 per cent) and Vancouver (7.3 per cent).
Despite the influx of new listings, condominium values have held steady in most markets. Calgary saw a 15 per cent increase in average condominium prices, followed by Edmonton at 4.0 per cent, Ottawa at 2.3 per cent and smaller gains in Vancouver, Fraser Valley and Halifax. Greater Toronto was the only market where prices dipped, down 2.0 per cent year-over-year.
Sales activity in the condominium sector varied, with Edmonton leading with about a 37 per cent year-over-year increase in sales, marking its best performance in five years. Calgary saw a more modest rise in sales (2.6 per cent). Meanwhile, other markets experienced slower condominium sales as potential buyers continued to wait for more favourable interest rates.
Future outlook: Current lull is ‘the calm before the storm’
“High interest rates and stringent lending policies pummelled first-time buyers in recent years, preventing many from reaching their homeownership goal, despite having to pay record-high rental costs that mirrored mortgage payments,” says Re/Max Canada president, Christopher Alexander. “The current lull is the calm before the storm,” he adds.
Alexander says as of spring next year, pent-up demand should fuel stronger market activity, especially at entry-level price points, as both first-time buyers and investors vie for affordable condominiums once again.
Market dynamics and regional trends
Re/Max found that Edmonton and Calgary remain in a seller’s market, while cities like Vancouver, Ottawa and Halifax have more balanced conditions and are likely to change next year. Toronto, while still experiencing sluggish activity, is expected to turn around quickly once market conditions improve, as prices are believed to have bottomed out.
Even as new listings rise, buyers remain cautious. Early interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada have not yet spurred significant buyer activity, but with more cuts anticipated, market activity is expected to pick up, particularly among end users seeking affordable condominium options.
“Even in softer markets, hot pockets tend to emerge,” says Alexander. “In the condominium segment we’re seeing a diverse mix among the most in-demand areas, ranging from traditional blue-chip communities to gentrifying up-and-comers, as well as suburban hot spots.”
He explains that condominiums in top recreational areas were among the markets posting stronger sales activity.
In Toronto, midtown neighbourhoods such as Yonge-Eglinton and Forest Hill South saw double-digit sales growth in the first eight months of 2024, as did communities in the city’s west end, including High Park and Roncesvalles. In Vancouver, suburban areas like Port Coquitlam saw a notable 11 per cent increase in apartment sales.
Investors take a step back except in key markets
While end users dominate the current condominium market, Re/Max observed a pullback among investors, particularly in Greater Toronto, where up to 30 per cent of investors have experienced negative cash flow due to rising mortgage carrying costs. Investor confidence is expected to recover as interest rates drop and rental incomes rise, making investment more favourable once again.
In contrast, Edmonton has bucked the trend, attracting investors seeking affordability. With condominium supply outpacing demand, savvy investors have been revitalizing older condominium stock to rent out at premium rates. Out-of-province investors, particularly from Ontario and British Columbia, are capitalizing on Edmonton’s lower costs and development-friendly environment.
Unique opportunity for buyers: ‘Arguably the most favourable climate condo buyers have seen in recent years’
“In many markets, end users are in the driver’s seat right now,” explains Alexander. “While investors are an important part of the purchaser pool, this point in time is a unique opportunity for aspiring condominium buyers who, for a short window of time, will likely see less competition from investors and a better supply of product.”
He notes this is especially true in Toronto and Vancouver, where the impact of monetary policy has hit investor profit margins to a greater extent despite high rent and low vacancy rates. “With values set to rise, this is arguably the most favourable climate condominium buyers have seen in recent years.”
‘Inevitable that further development will see condos become driving force accounting for lion’s share of (future) sales’
As immigration and in-migration between provinces continue to boost demand, condominiums are becoming both an entry point and a “middle step” in Canada’s most expensive markets. While population growth may slow in the short term, Statistics Canada projects that Canada’s population could reach as high as 49 million by 2035, ensuring long-term demand for condominiums.
“The housing mix is evolving very quickly as a result of densification and urbanization. Condominiums now represent the heart of our largest cities, and it’s inevitable that further development will see condominiums become the driving force accounting for the lion’s share of sales in years to come,” says Alexander.
“It’s a physical and cultural shift that Canadians are not only adjusting to but are embracing, as younger generations redefine urban neighbourhoods, sparking demand for vibrant and robust amenities, infusing new life in Canada’s urban cores in the process.”
Review the full report, including regional highlights.
