It’s been an unusually busy fall for much of Canada’s housing market and some regions are experiencing extraordinary activity into December, sparking optimism for 2025. 

What’s buoying that sense of optimism is a number of policy decisions on the federal level that many say will continue to boost the market in 2025. 

Those include the continued easing of interest rates by the Bank of Canada and measures by the federal government in “delivering the boldest mortgage reforms in decades” to make it easier for people to buy homes.

Just how solid and healthy is the market?

November by the numbers 

Recent data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association showed that overall MLS sales in Canada of 37,855 in November were up 26 per cent from a year ago, led by whopping annual increases of 47 per cent in Montreal, 38.6 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area and 28.6 per cent in the Greater Vancouver Area.

Marc Lefrancois, broker/co-owner with Equipe Lefrancois in Montreal, said the market is bouncing back after a tumultuous 18 months. After the pandemic, sales volume dropped drastically. Recovery began last January. But September and October began to see the recovery in full swing.

“Instead of having a very typical quiet November and December, we’re actually really busy right now,” he said. “Obviously Montreal having a lower price point than Toronto or Vancouver creates a bigger mass of people that are going back to buying homes or creating their property.

“Right now, we’re busy as crazy. I’m a little scared and worried because I think my holiday season is going to be crap. But we’re really busy right now.”

Supply vs. demand

Lefrancois explained that, yes, there are many buyers coming to the market but there are also sellers, adding he’s done a record number of home valuations for December.  People are buying now because they believe prices are going to go up and they will have to pay more next year. Sellers are coming onto the market not to miss out on the demand. 

And while there are sellers, there aren’t enough.  “Prices are starting to go up again. The problem is that supply isn’t there,” he added.

Busiest December in a decade…for some

“The only year I can compare (November and December this year) is 2011. For a while, U.S. banks were in jeopardy and everybody was stressed out about the U.S. banking system (would) collapse. In Montreal, volumes went down to zero because people were worried about what was going to happen. When they realized the banks weren’t going to collapse, we got really busy. I remember that holiday period I was at the office every single day except for the 25th and the 1st. It looks and feels like that right now. The month of December has been the busiest probably in at least the last 10 years for sure.”

He said he usually lists three to four homes at the beginning of January, but this year he’s looking at 10 or 12.

Tim Hill, with Re/Max All Points Realty based in New Westminster. B.C., said the last four weeks have been busier than normal for this time of year, adding last year’s Fall market was rough.

“In the trenches here this year, I’m surprisingly busy right now. Typically middle of December we’re really quiet. Usually the beginning of December it slows down but the last four weeks have been super busy. People have been making offers, and getting deals done. The ones that are doing it are doing it in anticipation of further rate cuts next year and thinking to themselves that if they can get ahead of that curve and get in or get moved before there’s any potential of madness it will just be a calmer move and if the numbers make sense why not do it now, why wait basically,”  he explained.

He said there’s a pause right now in sellers listing their homes as they’re gearing up to go to the market at the beginning of January.

But it’s not the same in other cities. Randy Ryalls, Royal LePage Sterling Realty in Port Moody, B.C., said December hasn’t been a continuation of November in his market.

“But that’s not unusual. Things tend to slow down in December. People tend to turn their attention to Christmas. Our October was our best month and then November continued on that trend but to a lesser degree. Our October was up about 32 per cent over October 2023. November dropped off a little bit as is kind of usual this time year. December is certainly quieter in our experience,” he said, adding sales are probably just under the 10-year average.

“For the first time in a long time, at least in Greater Vancouver, we actually have probably a sufficient amount of inventory to not really get into a serious bottleneck.” – Randy Ryalls

Though Ryalls believes 2025 is going to be very busy as things are lining up that way with new lending rules to expand the market which is important to an expensive market like Vancouver. 

“For the first time in a long time, at least in Greater Vancouver, we actually have probably a sufficient amount of inventory to not really get into a serious bottleneck,” said Ryalls, adding there’s probably about two years of pent-up demand in the market.

Cameron Forbes, with Re/max Realtron Realty in the GTA, said sales so far this month are higher than a year ago. 

“It will be a month where unit sales are up just like October and November. I’m not sure it will be 40 per cent but 20, 30 per cent for sure. So the market is more active than December 2023. December is normally a slower month…but because we’ve had rate decreases it certainly has helped more buyers ask the question is now the time to buy, should I be back in the market, what can I afford,” he said.

Forbes expects increases in monthly sales into the New Year.

Positive outlook for 2025

Brayden Irwin, Broker with the Lome Irwin Team in Toronto, affiliated with Royal LePage, said there’s a much more positive outlook on the market and on the cost of debt, which obviously plays a big factor for a lot of people and how comfortable they are taking on an investment of this size and whether they can afford it. 

Prices have softened from 2022 highs and interest rates have likely peaked, so now’s probably a good time to buy if people want to try and get ahead of what could be a stronger spring market with more competition. 

“That’s probably what’s kind of fueled the market in 2024. I think a lot of people were expecting earlier on in the year that interest rates were going to come down sooner than they did and so that forecast kept getting pushed out, pushed out, pushed out, but obviously over the last three interest rate announcements they’ve accelerated the amount that they’re decreasing them each announcement,” added Irwin. 

He said the mortgage reforms are intended to make housing more accessible allowing more people to be able to participate.

“And if more people are participating and we’re not able to keep up with the supply, then that should lead to an increase in prices. I think that is what most people are anticipating is going to happen over the next year.  So pretty positive outlook when you’re looking forward.”

A “tremendously busy December for sales” for Calgary Realtor

Joel Semmens, with Re/Max House of Real Estate in Calgary, said his sales, which concentrate on higher-end and inner-city properties, experienced a slight pullback in volume from September to November.

“But oddly December we’ve been run off our feet again in terms of sales. It was almost like a bit of a delayed market. I think the interest rate cut as another half a point has kind of helped fuel the market back up and it’s been a really tremendously busy December for sales,” he explained. “Busier than we typically get.

“I think we’re going to have a very busy market starting by mid-February. I think we’ll see an uprise in terms of people bringing their houses to the market to beat the spring and summer rush. I think we’re going to see more inventory coming to the market in February and March…It’s going to be a strong market.”

Renata Reid, senior vice president of Sales with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada in Calgary, says she’s seeing a “phenomenal” December, “with multiple offers still happening right now, which is unusual for this time of year.”

Reid adds, “And our market was already crazy. It’s going to be a really hot market for Calgary going forward.”