Realtors on the front lines are seeing the fallout from Canada’s trade war with the U.S. unfold in real time as would-be homebuyers grow increasingly hesitant to make a move.

There has been a measurable shift in consumer confidence, with many clients adopting a “wait and see” approach—and the data backs it up. 

 

Consumer confidence takes a hit as tariffs bite

 

Homes sales fell “sharply” in February, according to CREA, dropping 10 per cent month over month, marking the lowest level for home sales since November 2023, and the largest month-over-month decline since May 2022.

“The moment tariffs were first announced on January 20, a gap opened between home sales recorded this year and last. This trend continued to widen throughout February, leading to a significant, but hardly surprising, drop in monthly activity,” says Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist.

Brian Speers, with Re/Max West Realty in the Greater Toronto Area, says falling interest rates were bringing buyers back to the market, and now the theme has shifted—his clients have stepped back and are taking a wait-and-see approach. 

Speers calls it the Trump factor.

 

The Trump factor

 

“I had a…ready to buy, young couple, really good jobs. We started looking, and then they started thinking, ‘Yeah, you know, we’re not sure with this whole tariff thing.’ And they’ve now pulled back.”

Dan Wojcik and Alex Elieff, with Century 21 in Barrie, Ont., have seen the market slow significantly over the last two years and say it’s been challenging.

The start of 2025 brought optimism, Wojcik says, and then the “Trump effect” came into play.

“What we’re seeing is that conversation with our clients and how nervous they are about spending the money. They’re basically putting everything on hold as the dust kind of settles,” he adds.

“What we’re seeing and hearing is that they much rather hold on to their money for the time being to see how this will impact the economy long term.”

Buyers adopt a wait-and-see approach

 

 

Elieff says he’s working with several buyers who are on the hunt for the right house, and while inventory is there, the quality is not. “It’s a transitional period,” he says.

Wojcik says uncertainty stalls the market, “We’ve been doing this for now 12 years…whenever there’s negative news in the media, the public panics. They stall and they pause. And that’s exactly what’s happening here.”

The Realtor says he isn’t losing clients, they’ve just pressed pause. “Every time these looming tariff conversations come to fruition or come into the media spotlight, it will stall the market and people will pause. And we’ve seen that in the last 30 days.”

 

Different city, same story

 

In Oshawa, Ont. Realtor Jessie McLellan sees a similar situation playing out. She says the inventory is there, “but our sales, our number of transactions are not keeping with the amount of sellers that have come back to the market.”

Is it a golden opportunity for those with buying power?  “I do think that for buyers, especially if tariffs are in for a long period of time, there could be a sweet spot to purchase. Interest rates have come down.”

 

East Coast braces for potential impact

 

Among the cities expected to be hardest hit by a drawn-out trade war is St. John’s.

The only certainty is uncertainty, Jim Burton, owner of Re/Max Infinity, says. He hasn’t had any clients pull back “but we are hearing of developers being cautious on plans for future residential developments.”

Burton’s clients are aware of the economic factors at play, however, “They are focused on finding a property. We have an anomaly in our marketplace, low inventory. In Newfoundland and Labrador, there’s currently a residential inventory issue. Active listings were 42 per cent below the 10-year average for February. We have 5.6 months inventory, whereas the long-run average for this time of year is 15 months.”

 

Calgary buyers and sellers tread carefully

 

In Calgary, another city that would be deeply impacted by continued tariffs, buyers and sellers are moving forward with caution, says Renata Reid, a Realtor with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. 

“The uncertainty around tariff threats isn’t stopping real estate activity—it’s just making people more strategic. I’m seeing more buyers looking at downsizing or finding ways to stretch their dollars further, while sellers are planning ahead to maximize their returns.”

Reid also expects interprovincial migration will continue. “Housing here remains affordable compared to other major cities, and Alberta’s lower cost of living continues to be a major draw,” she says.

As for Calgary’s high-end market? Joel Semmens, with Re/Max House of Real Estate in Calgary, is expecting clients to wait out the storm of uncertainty. 

He adds, “Also people are considering building a property or buying a piece of land (with the intention of building)…will have second thoughts with rising build costs because of tariffs.”