Canada’s luxury housing market stabilized in this year’s third quarter, with moderating growth in Toronto and Vancouver as the effects of population growth and declining mortgage rates offset a slowing economy and wavering consumer confidence.
According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: Fall 2024 State of Luxury Report, these conditions have shifted luxury condominium markets in both major cities into buyers’ territory, with supply outpacing demand and prices stabilizing.
Toronto: Modest gains in luxury single-family homes
In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), luxury real estate sales over $4 million remained steady, with a 3.0 per cent year-over-year increase between July and August 2024. Single-family homes priced over $4 million saw a 4.0 per cent rise in sales, while the luxury condominium market softened, with a 25 per cent decline in $4 million-plus condominium sales compared to last year.
September data showed a continued trend, with GTA residential sales over $4 million increasing 9.0 per cent year-over-year. However, condominium sales remained flat, with just one luxury sale, mirroring last year’s figures.
Vancouver: Market cools amid election uncertainty
Vancouver’s luxury real estate market faced softer sales in Q3 2024. Sales of homes priced over $4 million fell 13 per cent compared to summer 2023 levels, while single-family home sales dropped 16 per cent. Consumer uncertainty surrounding the upcoming provincial election contributed to the decline.
In September, Vancouver’s luxury market saw a significant 52 per cent drop in $4 million-plus home sales, with no luxury condominium sales recorded. Overall residential sales over $1 million were down 31 per cent year-over-year.
Montreal: Luxury market strengthens
Montreal’s top-tier real estate market saw notable growth, with $1 million-plus sales increasing 15 per cent in Q3 2024 compared to the same period last year. Though sales of homes over $4 million were down from last year, the market remains strong heading into the fall, with September $1 million-plus residential sales surging 83 per cent year-over-year.
Calgary: Leading the luxury market surge
Calgary continues to outperform other major Canadian cities, driven by population growth and strong demand. Luxury sales over $1 million rose 31 per cent year-over-year in Q3 2024, with the market poised for further growth as sales climbed 15 per cent in September, including two properties sold over $4 million.
Favourable conditions for buyers
Sotheby’s president and CEO, Don Kottick, notes that buyers are encountering some of the most favourable conditions in years as top-tier property listings increase and housing prices stabilize. While the market is expected to remain stable in the short term, Kottick warns that population growth and rising building costs will continue to fuel competition for luxury properties in the future.
“This trend is especially evident in the once fiercely competitive markets of Vancouver and Toronto, as well as across the luxury condominium sector,” Kottick highlights. “Over the longer term, there’s no doubt that population growth will intensify competition for housing … There’s an opportunity to take advantage of the favourable homebuying conditions we’re seeing today.”
Kottick also highlights that the cumulative effect of interest rate cuts has permeated market sentiment, boosting confidence and spurring transactions. Should additional rate cuts occur before year-end, luxury home sales could see a substantial boost.
Review the full report, including detailed findings, here.
