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Commercial RE sales in the Lower Mainland experience significant drop year-over-year

The first quarter of 2023 proved to be challenging for the commercial real estate market in British Columbia’s Lower Mainland, as data from Commercial Edge, a commercial real estate system operated by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), reveals year-over-year declines across all property types.
 
According to the report, there were 273 commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland during the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, representing a significant 58.1 per cent decrease compared to the 651 sales recorded in Q1 2022.
 
The total dollar value of commercial real estate sales in the region also saw a substantial decline, reaching close to $1.5 billion in Q1 2023. This figure represents a notable 64.8 per cent decrease compared to the $4.2 billion recorded in the same quarter of the previous year.
 
Andrew Lis, the director of economics and data analytics at REBGV, highlighted the impact of higher borrowing costs on the real estate market’s overall transactional activity, including the commercial sector. 
 
Lis stated, “Not to sound like a broken record, but it’s hard to ignore the cooling impact higher borrowing costs have had on transactions in the real estate market overall, and the commercial market remains no exception.”

Lis also acknowledged the recent 0.25 per cent hike to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate in June, with the possibility of another 0.25 per cent hike in July. He mentioned that relief may not be on the near-term horizon. However, he noted a positive aspect, saying, “The silver lining is that inflation is heading in the right direction and is finally nearing the Bank of Canada’s target range of one to three per cent, suggesting that the need for any dramatic increases to the policy rate from here on is unlikely.”

Analyzing the specific categories, the report detailed the performance of different property types during Q1 2023:

Land: Commercial land sales experienced a significant decline, with 86 transactions in Q1 2023, representing a 60.7 per cent decrease compared to the 219 land sales recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. The dollar value of land sales also decreased to $896 million, down by 62 per cent from the $2.356 billion recorded in Q1 2022.

Office and retail: Q1 2023 witnessed a decline in office and retail sales, with only 113 transactions in the Lower Mainland. This figure represents a substantial 53.7 per cent decrease compared to the 244 sales recorded in Q1 2022. The dollar value of office and retail sales also dropped to $172 million, a significant 78.8 per cent decrease from the $811 million recorded in the same quarter of the previous year.

Industrial: The industrial sector also experienced a decline in sales activity, with 63 transactions in Q1 2023, representing a 58.6 per cent decrease compared to the 152 sales recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. The dollar value of industrial sales amounted to $322 million, showing a 50.7 per cent decrease from the $653 million recorded in Q1 2022.

Multi-Family: Multi-family land sales witnessed a sharp decline, with 11 transactions in Q1 2023, representing a significant 69.4 per cent decrease compared to the 36 sales recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. The dollar value of multi-family sales also saw a substantial decrease, reaching $93 million, which reflects a 76.3 per cent drop from the $392 million recorded in Q1 2022.

 

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