Realism, fantasy and flying pigs: Niagara sellers holding out for pandemic-era prices may be waiting a while, writes area agent Rob Dundas.
The views expressed in this column are solely those of the author.
There’s a weird thing happening right now in Niagara (and everywhere else, for that matter).
Things became really expensive.
Collection notices seem a little more like death threats. A Happy Meal costs the same as minor dental surgery. Gas stations change prices like they’re day trading cocaine futures. You have to find a cashier to get into the eggs and milk vault.
And yet half the housing market is still standing in the driveway of a 1964 sidesplit in (Whateverville) saying: “Yeah, but I know what I gots.”
Do you? Are you sure? Because the market may be finally starting to make a very uncomfortable statement: “Ya, I’m not paying that much for THAT.”
Not theoretically, or emotionally, or in a backhanded Facebook comment.
In real life.
Because eventually, no matter how stubborn sellers, landlords, investors, governments, banks, Realtors, economists or your weird uncle Larry become…math starts mathing.
Niagara isn’t immune anymore
The Niagara region is not immune to global economics anymore. Those days are gone. We’re suddenly tied to interest rates, immigration pressure, construction costs, supply chains, tariffs, fuel costs, consumer debt, international instability and news headlines designed to make everybody think the apocalypse will start on Thursday.
No wonder everyone flips me off in my car.
Yet, here we are.
Come on! We all know that we were virtually unnoticed in the “Niagarahood” seven years ago. Now, after society collectively lost its mind for two straight years, we all went from, “Meh, I might use that old rental to bury the bodies” to “Exclusive, luxury duplex opportunity available in Wellandport”… Homeowners went from somebody with a Bruins cap driving a beat-up Ford F-150 to the Wolf of Wall Street.
What seven years changed
But the music slowed down, didn’t it? Seven years ago — roughly 2019 — the Niagara region housing market was almost unrecognizable compared to today. Back then, average prices in many Niagara communities looked roughly like this:
- St. Catharines: about $275,000 to $400,000
- Niagara Falls: about $295,000 to $425,000
- Welland: often under $300,000
- Port Colborne and Fort Erie: many detached homes still sat in the $250,000 to $350,000 range
Today the Niagara region average sale price is hovering around $600,000 to $625,000, depending on the month and property type.
So even after the recent correction and softer market:
- Niagara home prices are still roughly 60 to 120 per cent higher than they were seven years ago.
- Some communities doubled in price during the pandemic surge.
- Monthly carrying costs exploded even harder because mortgage rates climbed dramatically from the ultra-low COVID era.
And this is the part we conveniently forget.
In 2019:
- Interest rates were far lower.
- Insurance was cheaper.
- Utilities were cheaper.
- Groceries were cheaper.
- Renovation costs were dramatically cheaper.
- Property taxes were lower.
- Buyers still had some breathing room.
Lower prices, worse affordability
Today, even with softer prices, affordability is arguably worse because the total cost of ownership got crushed from every direction at once.
That’s why the market feels like “The Twilight Zone” right now.
Prices came down from their peak, but life got so expensive that buyers were still trapped.
And that’s exactly why Niagara has slowed. Not because people suddenly stopped wanting homes, but because people hit the wall financially.
That’s the story underneath almost everything happening in Ontario real estate right now, but a lot of sellers simply refuse to notice.
Inventory has climbed in many Niagara communities. Homes are sitting longer. Benchmark prices across Niagara have softened year over year, while affordability and the cost of everyday necessities remain brutal for the average buyer.
Historically, markets don’t crack because people want lower prices. They crack because eventually people cannot financially carry the weight anymore.
The COVID lottery
And this is where people get emotional.
People scream, “But Rob, if I lower my price, how do I survive?”
That’s an excellent question. And I hate to answer a question with a question, but… if nobody can, or wants to, buy your house… whatcha going to do then? Exactly what are we defending here? People from Niagara know that in 2019 they never imagined, in their wildest dreams, that their $250,000 bungalow would EVER be listed at $650,000. But that happened thanks to the COVID Powerball Lottery. And almost overnight space became the new luxury. Husbands and wives were working from home, school was at home. Everything was at home. We were locked in with the only escape being the occasional Mad Max-style run to the grocery store. Families were locked in together and they needed space… FAST. And, guess what? Somebody finally discovered Niagara… and we had space and our prices were dirt cheap.
Then, BOOM!
Stale listings aren’t comparables
But, here’s the rub. The out-of-towners who bought into the COVID gold rush are now stuck. They actually believed the sky was falling and all jobs would suddenly be “remote” forever. They’re simply not getting that investment back right now. So, they are either trying to lease their money trap at a ridiculous price to reclaim their entire mortgage amount, or just leaving it for sale, ad infinitum, at a ridiculous price, with the crooked Realtor sign in a front yard that looks like it’s where Lyme disease originated.
But THEN the local homeowner, who bought in 1989 for the price of a riding mower, suddenly wants COVID lottery money too. They cross their arms in blind defiance demanding the price that the desperate sellers are hopelessly trying to squeak out BUT AREN’T GETTING.
Why?
Because Realtors use comparable homes to list homes and a home that sits on the market for 18 months without an offer is NOT a comparable. It’s a hostage situation.
“But why would a Realtor do such a thing? Shouldn’t they show SOLD comparable homes?”
Why, yes, they should. But buyers use the interweb and Realtor.ca and have more market insight than Warren Buffett. But those websites often do not show sold prices (if there is one) or if homes are simply taken off the market. And potential sellers’ wandering eyes focus on the numbers that their hearts want to see… despite reality. And sadly, many will not listen to ANY other reasoning.
The market doesn’t care what sellers want or need or imagine. The market cares what buyers can sustain and will accept (they have the interweb too).
That’s it.
And for the years after COVID, buyers adapted with smaller homes, longer commutes, renting when they didn’t want to, negotiating with family (if you have that privilege) and accepting 30-year amortizations just to make it work. With no vacations, no savings and no backup plan whatsoever.
People stretched themselves into human bungee cords just trying to get a sip of water from the dried-up riverbed below.
Some ran out of rope.
Not because they were lazy, or felt entitled, or simply blew it. But because the burden became too much.
Where quiet fortunes start
And honestly? (I know a LOT of people are going to hate this part.)
That’s probably healthy.
Because something else happens during periods like this that almost nobody talks about.
This is where fortunes quietly start. Not loud fortunes, or the overnight YouTube sensation, or the surprise inheritance.
Real ones. The kind built by people who stay calm while everybody else panics.
History is full of people who bought assets during uncertainty and renovated when others froze, and negotiated hard while others waited for “perfect timing.” The people who understood value instead of bullshit.
Those are usually the people smiling 10 years later.
Not because they were geniuses.
Because they were realistic.
And realism is coming back into style. Slowly, painfully and inevitably.
Niagara isn’t collapsing
That doesn’t mean Niagara is collapsing. Far from it. Niagara still has something many regions don’t:
- Land
- Tourism
- Agriculture
- Cross-border access
- Lifestyle appeal
- Relative affordability compared to much of southern Ontario
- Retirees
- Remote workers
- Investment migration from larger urban centres
People still WANT to live here.
There are pockets in our little region that are unseen miracles… and some that could and should be.
But want, desire and potential alone do not erase affordability pressure, and the smartest people in markets like this are usually the quietest.
They’re the ones adjusting. They’re the sellers who price properly instead of “testing the market,” and the buyers who stop waiting for fantasy crash headlines, and negotiate intelligently, and take the time to hunt down value… The people who understand that surviving a difficult market IS the victory.
The case for a correction
That’s the part the media skips. Everybody wants the exciting market. Nobody wants the necessary correction. But corrections are where healthy markets come from. They force honesty back into the conversation.
The Niagara region could probably use a little more honesty right now.
Because pretending everybody can endlessly pay more forever for smaller spaces, higher debt and shrinking quality of life… That’s not optimism, it’s denial. At some point, regardless of what your friends at the local Timmies say, asking prices adjust, lease rates adjust and expectations adjust.
If they don’t, people simply stop playing the whole silly little game.
And once that happens?
The market adjusts for them.
I write these articles because I genuinely care about this region and the people trying to survive in it.
I’ve watched Niagara change fast.
Young buyers get discouraged, older homeowners get nervous, families stretch themselves thin and good people quietly wonder if they’re falling behind in a game that they don’t know the rules to anymore.
I don’t think enough people are speaking plainly about it.
I’m not writing these articles to sound important, polished or clever. I write them because real estate affects people’s entire lives. Their health. Their relationships. Their future. Their livelihoods… and I write to learn more about it all.
The more I work in this business, the more I realize people don’t need sales pitches.
They need honesty.
Sometimes funny honesty.
Sometimes uncomfortable honesty.
But honesty all the same.
And if even one person reads this stuff and makes a calmer, smarter, less emotional decision because of it… then it was worth writing.
Please leave a sign, a comment, anything to let me know you were here.
