CREA has removed 18,806 sales from its 2026 forecast since July. Sellers waiting for a stronger fall market have been given another reason to lower their expectations.

The association now expects 444,530 residential sales in 2026, down 5.2 per cent from 2025. September sales fell 2.3 per cent from August after seasonal adjustment, while new listings fell 1.8 per cent. The market lost buyers faster than it lost new supply.

Monthly change in residential sales and new listings, seasonally adjusted. Chart: valery.ca · Data: CREA.

The national benchmark price slipped 0.4 per cent in September after four months of stability. It was 3.4 per cent below September 2025 on an unadjusted basis. The average sale price fell 1.6 per cent annually to $666,538.

A seller can point to a comparable sale from the summer. The buyer still has to finance the purchase at today’s rate. An agent defending an ambitious asking price needs to account for what has happened to the buyer’s borrowing capacity since that comparable sold.

 

Balanced, with fewer buyers

 

Canada’s sales-to-new-listings ratio eased to 48.8 per cent from 49.1 per cent in August, below its long-term average of 54.7 per cent. It remains within CREA’s roughly 45 to 65 per cent range for a balanced national market.

Seasonally adjusted sales-to-new-listings ratio. CREA’s national balanced range is roughly 45 to 65 per cent. Chart: valery.ca · Data: CREA.

There were slightly more than 200,000 homes listed at month-end, up 1.8 per cent annually. Seasonally adjusted months of inventory edged up to 4.9, close to its historical average. Canada has a slow market without an exceptional national surplus of listings.

A smaller pool of buyers gives an overpriced listing fewer chances to find someone willing to stretch. Sellers can hold out, but the mortgage, property tax and maintenance bills keep arriving.

The listing presentation should start with the homes competing for the same buyer, the prices that have recently produced a sale and the seller’s cost of waiting. A national forecast of stable prices is thin support for an asking price that local buyers are rejecting.

 

Ontario has less room for optimism

 

Ontario’s residential sales-to-new-listings ratio was 41.9 per cent in September, compared with 43.9 per cent in British Columbia, 57.6 per cent in Alberta and 64.4 per cent in Manitoba. These seasonally adjusted provincial figures describe very different levels of competition.

Residential sales-to-new-listings ratios, seasonally adjusted. National thresholds are not calibrated to each local market. Chart: valery.ca · Data: CREA.

Ontario’s ratio barely changed from August’s 41.8 per cent. Conditions were already weak. September added another price decline as buyers faced higher borrowing costs.

CREA’s seasonally adjusted benchmark fell 0.5 per cent in Greater Toronto, 0.8 per cent in Mississauga, 1.2 per cent in Hamilton-Burlington and 1.5 per cent in Ottawa during September. Kitchener-Waterloo and London and St. Thomas recorded monthly gains.

CREA composite MLS HPI geographies, seasonally adjusted; boundaries differ from some TRREB municipality series. Chart: valery.ca · Data: CREA.

Agree on a price-review date before the listing goes live. If showings and offers fail to materialize, the seller should already know what happens next. Waiting until the listing has gone stale makes that conversation more expensive.

 

The forecast keeps losing sales

 

July’s forecast called for 463,336 sales in 2026 and 480,567 in 2027. October cuts those totals to 444,530 and 464,235. CREA also revised the 2025 comparison base between forecasts; these are changes in projected transaction counts.

CREA lowered its sales forecasts by 18,806 transactions for 2026 and 16,332 for 2027. The 2025 base was also revised. Chart: valery.ca · Data: CREA.

The price outlook moved much less. CREA expects the national annual average to rise 0.2 per cent to $681,681 in 2026, followed by 1.2 per cent to $689,909 in 2027. Ontario is forecast to record a 3 per cent average-price decline this year and a 0.7 per cent increase next year.

These annual transaction averages can stay close to flat while current benchmarks fall. They also change with the mix of homes sold. A seller cannot take the national forecast’s 0.2 per cent increase and apply it to their own property.

 

Pent-up demand is still waiting

 

We are no longer hearing the same confidence about pent-up demand. CREA still mentions it in the 2027 forecast, but September delivered fewer sales and another downgrade. People who would like to move still need an income and a mortgage that will pay for it.

 

CREA forecasts a 5.2 per cent sales decline in 2026 and a 4.4 per cent rebound in 2027. Even then, sales would remain 4,436 below 2025. Chart: valery.ca · Data: CREA.

The projected rebound depends on slow economic growth, a return to higher population growth and greater certainty about rates. CREA assumes limited Bank of Canada action over the next year, even though markets were pricing approximately 100 basis points of increases when the forecast was prepared. More tightening would make an already modest recovery harder to deliver.

CREA’s 4.4 per cent sales rebound in 2027 would still leave transactions about 0.9 per cent below 2025. Brokerages should be able to carry their costs if that rebound disappoints. Sellers have a more immediate problem: the price needs to work for a buyer who can close now. Another forecast revision will not cover the cost of waiting.