The views expressed in this column are solely those of the author.

 

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It has certainly been a wild few weeks in British Columbia politics. B.C. has long had a unique and arguably odd political environment.

To show you what I mean, let’s do a quick recap of B.C. political history: For many years, the political landscape was primarily populated by the B.C. NDP and the B.C. Liberal Party. For out-of-province readers, it’s important to note that the B.C. Liberals were not affiliated with the federal Liberal Party and were actually more of a centre-right-leaning, business- and economy-oriented party.

Despite this frequent confusion, the B.C. Liberals held power from 2001 to 2017, when they were usurped by the B.C. NDP. This marked a significant change from the status quo to a progressive, “for the people” government ready to address the perceived challenges of the time. (The B.C. Liberals eventually rebranded as BC United in 2023, to little success.)

John Horgan, a seasoned MLA from Vancouver Island, took the reins as premier from 2017 to 2022, then passed the leadership baton and a $5.7-billion post-COVID provincial budget surplus to another seasoned MLA, David Eby. Eby stepped into the role having formerly served as housing minister and attorney general. He wasted no time spending the budget surplus on health care, strategic infrastructure and addressing the housing crisis.

 

Deficits, downgrades and a shrinking economy

 

What followed was a series of significant challenges, including post-pandemic inflation, slower economic growth and trade uncertainty arising from U.S. President Donald Trump and the ongoing trade war. Add this to the administration’s spend-friendly tendencies, and for each of the Eby years in power, the province posted remarkably high deficits in the $11-billion to $13-billion range.

These amounts are a particularly notable feat since B.C. has nowhere near the population or economic clout of Ontario yet has been managing comparable debt levels. Meanwhile, B.C.’s public sector employment increased from just over 520,000 in April 2023 to a forecast 598,977 in 2026-27, an increase of about 15 per cent. The province then experienced multiple credit downgrades, from Aaa in 2023 to Aa2, according to Moody’s, and serious concerns about the province’s fiscal management began to be voiced regularly by regional media.

From there, things continued to intensify. Cost-of-living increases continued, provincial economic growth was virtually flat and net migration out of B.C. became an annual trend. Meanwhile, the Eby administration boldly tried to grapple with housing costs and supply through a series of under-consulted legislative changes, blanket zoning amendments, municipal housing targets and specialized tax regimes, which ultimately proved ineffective. The party would frequently brag in the media about lowering rental costs, but this was arguably due to declining economic conditions and new immigration restrictions.

 

A Conservative party in turmoil

 

Despite this challenging backdrop, the B.C. NDP won a majority government in 2024 (by a thin margin) and had a two-year mandate remaining as of this fall. Comparably, the B.C. Conservatives have been a chaotic whirlwind of their own. After many years on the political outskirts, the party emerged in 2024 as a big tent composed of true-blue conservatives and more moderate, centre-right former B.C. Liberal/BC United members who merged as part of an 11th-hour backroom deal by former party leaders Kevin Falcon and John Rustad.

While this brought the B.C. Conservatives true opposition-party clout, the party struggled with internal identity crises amid right-versus-far-right ideological divisions. Two issues were, and remain, particular points of internal focus: the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA) and Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity 123 (SOGI 123), an education resource and anti-bullying framework designed to make school more welcoming for students of all sexual orientations and gender identities.

The party seemed at a breaking point in September after the forced departure of its recently elected hard-right-leaning leader, Kerry-Lynn Findlay, and the preceding departure of seven MLAs who were taking steps to form a new party or merge with CentreBC, an upstart party with little political clout.

 

The snap election that backfired

 

However, from the moment David Eby called a snap election for Oct. 24, things began to shift. Eby’s rudderless election-call speech heavily featured Trump as justification for the election, a rationale the media and public had little alignment with. At the same time, several longtime NDP MLAs, including Lana Popham and Ravi Kahlon, made known their intent not to run.

Then there was the Conservatives’ new interim leader, Lorne Doerkson, a non-confrontational backbench MLA from Williams Lake, put in place just two days before the election call. Most of the departed MLAs rejoined the party. And, critically, the Conservatives moved in a more centrist direction, minimizing their public engagement on wedge issues and sticking to discussions of B.C.’s declining economy, growing deficit and fresh approaches to longstanding issues with health care, housing affordability and education.

As the rubber hit the road on the campaign trail, Eby failed to gain traction with any new ideas, and old excuses around lack of success in key areas didn’t land with media members or the public. Doerkson established himself as a restrained, principled leader promising a refocus on issues of dire concern to British Columbians, and it worked.

 

What comes next for housing

 

Election day proved one-sided as the B.C. Conservatives established their widest majority in the province since 2001, and the NDP lost nearly half of its seats. While the final count is still to come, the B.C. Conservatives are expected to win 64 of 93 seats, with 27 going to the NDP and two to the Green Party. David Eby quickly stepped aside as leader, and the battered and bruised party must now reimagine and plot its next political steps.

As the dust settles and the B.C. Conservatives prepare for their swearing-in, premier-designate Doerkson and his key advisers are busy crafting a cabinet and associated mandates. On housing policy, the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA), along with other like-minded organizations, is wasting no time, advocating that the party stand down on any rushed changes.

BCREA has long been lobbying for the establishment of a small, permanent, but critically important housing policy roundtable that would bring together key policy experts from market, non-market and Indigenous housing associations, along with several academics and representatives from all three orders of government. This group would collectively review housing legislation, carefully assess the positives and negatives of any potential new direction and apply a much more detailed best-practice approach to designing the future of British Columbia’s housing policy.

It remains to be seen how this new party governs, but optimism abounds that if it begins by listening and drawing on expertise from outside government to help chart its path, a more positive economic future may start to emerge.