Artist rendering (source: altotrain.ca)
A high-speed rail line between Quebec City and Toronto could have significant real estate impacts across the region, including the creation of a new commuter community in Peterborough.
The federal government announced the Alto high-speed rail project at the start of 2025 and it is now in a consultancy phase, with construction expected to begin in 2029. Ottawa plans to focus on the Montreal-Ottawa corridor first, with the line eventually connecting Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City. The train could reach speeds of up to 300 kilometres per hour — twice the speed of the current VIA Rail service.
A global precedent
High-speed rail is not a new concept. Japan was among the first countries to build the technology in the 1960s, and it has since been adopted in France, the U.S., Germany, the U.K. and China.
A 2019 study by the Harvard International Review examined the real estate effects of high-speed rail in Japan. It found the technology prompted lower-productivity individuals to move further from high-density cities into outlying regions served by the rail line, as it lowered commuting costs to areas with more affordable housing. That led to lower density in cities, while higher-productivity individuals stayed or moved into urban centres, boosting GDP per capita.
As Japanese households moved to outlying areas, the study found they drove up local housing prices — but average housing costs in metropolitan areas ultimately ended up lower than they would have been without high-speed rail.
Peterborough in play
Kathryn Exon Smith, a senior research officer at the University of Toronto’s School of Cities who studied how Canada’s high-speed rail could develop, said a real estate boom in Peterborough is possible, with property values near stations along the route also likely to rise.
“It’s the premium of being next to a transit amenity,” Exon Smith said. “But for something like high-speed rail, there’s the potential for it to have regional effects.”
She said those effects could materialize as soon as plans are confirmed. While Peterborough is currently shortlisted for a station, that could change — Kingston, Ont., is also vying for one. Only one of the two may ultimately be chosen, as builders look to limit stops to maintain speed.
The location of stations — whether on city outskirts or in downtown cores — will also shape real estate outcomes. Exon Smith pointed to California, where peripheral station placement dampened real estate impacts due to traffic concerns, and Miami, where a downtown station has become a popular destination in its own right.
“The idea of stations themselves being destinations is really powerful,” she said. “That has increased the value of properties around there.”
Toronto demand unlikely to ease
Imran Abdool, an economics and finance lecturer at Western University’s Ivey School of Business, said Peterborough will almost certainly see property prices rise as it becomes more accessible to larger cities like Toronto. He doesn’t, however, expect Toronto prices to fall, given the multilateral nature of demand there — including from immigrants who tend to prefer settling in major urban centres.
Once plans are finalized, Abdool expects developers to move into Peterborough with a broader range of housing types, including condos and townhouses alongside the detached homes that currently dominate the market.
“If you introduce this high-speed rail, that changes the mix completely,” he said. “This could change the history of that city.”
Peterborough’s selling points
Not everyone sees a condo boom on the horizon. Peterborough realtor Carrie Brockhurst said she expects development to favour detached houses, given that affordable homes with backyards are one of the city’s biggest draws. She sees room for new homes in both the north and south of the city, and doesn’t think high-speed rail will make Peterborough a magnet for singles — it will remain, she said, a family-friendly market built on affordability and outdoor living.
“People who move to Peterborough are looking for space,” she said. “They’re not looking for that Toronto lifestyle… we’re all about the outdoors.”
Even so, Brockhurst said the rail project hasn’t generated much buzz among her clients. After two decades of discussion, many locals are taking a wait-and-see approach.
“It’s kind of falling on deaf ears,” she said. “Right now, we’re just in a wait-and-see type of game.”
Eric Stober has over 10 years experience as a journalist and writer at publications big and small, including Global News, Toronto Life, Post City Magazine, Greencamp.com, the Toronto Star and The Grid.
