A new report paints a dark picture of the state of the real estate construction sector, as the steep decline of new home starts in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) makes construction jobs evaporate.
The analysis conducted by the Missing Middle Initiative at the University of Ottawa for the Real Estate Construction Council of Ontario reveals that housing starts in the first nine months of 2025 are down substantially from the same period in the previous three years, while industry job losses continue to grow. The assessment is based on data from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Altus Group.
Housing starts plummet 34 per cent; condos down 51 per cent
Researchers examined 34 municipalities across nine separate metro areas in the GTA and GGH and assessed the state of housing sales and construction, and the effects on industry employment.
The analysis shows that housing starts were down 34 per cent in the municipalities over the first three quarters of 2025, relative to the January-to-September periods in 2021-24.
Condo apartment starts were down 51 per cent in 2025 relative to the same earlier time periods.
Bucking the trend were purpose-built rental starts, which were up 42 per cent over the same periods.
Decline in new homes wipes out jobs
The decline in housing starts, compared to the previous four-year average at this point in the year, is estimated to have reduced the number of jobs by more than 26,000 across the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area.
The report’s release is timely. Both the federal and Ontario governments have committed to significantly raising housing starts, but their targets seem out of reach and unfocused, according to experts.
‘Staring into the abyss’
RESCON president Richard Lyall said the findings of the report confirm what the construction industry and builders have been experiencing on the ground for some time.
“We are staring into the abyss. The new home market has tanked. It is a particularly dark time for those who work in residential construction,” he said, noting the “significant” job losses across the board. “Projects are being shelved, and this will have a significant trickle-down effect on Ontario’s economy. We must act quickly to stem the bleeding.”
The tax burden is a big part of the problem, according to RESCON. Taxes, fees and levies account for 36 per cent of the cost of a new home, according to a press release.
RESCON has called on the federal and provincial governments to eliminate the sales taxes on all new homes, in addition to the steps taken to eliminate the taxes for first-time buyers.
“This report is an eye-opener, as it notes we are trending in the wrong direction and the situation could get even worse,” says Lyall. “Builders need to be able to build homes that people can afford. Steps must be taken to get the industry back on track. Our economy depends on it.”
Courtney Zwicker is a digital reporter and associate editor for REM. Based in Atlantic Canada, she has over a decade of experience covering daily business news.
