By Marty Douglas
Bafflegab! We are used to politicians not answering the question, parsing the language and having their bureaucrats create communications so obtuse, any later retraction, amendment or denial can be made to appear positive. This “skill” gained national attention recently when a Conservative parliamentary secretary was forced to apologize to the House of Commons for disrespecting the zoo called Question Period.
In his defence, it is not called Answer Period, however he was guilty of arrogant indifference, what we might call ignorant, when called upon to answer a question from the Opposition.
I’m drafting this column the day following the speeches from Prime Minister Harper, Opposition Leader Thomas Mulcair and wanna-be opposition leader and posturing PM-in-waiting Justin Trudeau, on the role of Canada in the war against the Islamic terrorist group, ISIS. (Full disclosure: I have supported my Conservative member of parliament John Duncan for every federal election. But I several times voted Liberal when they, in the distant past, supported the armed services and once, blame it on youth and that’s where the girls were, I drifted to the provincial NDP. So I’m a bit of a political tramp.)
I fully support the government position on ISIS.
I can’t help but think the government has led the two opposition parties into an election trap, and the NDP and the Liberals sniffed the air and decided against the right thing to do in favour of doing what will win votes in 2015. In their opinion.
It boils down to the wrist band the NDP and the Liberals wear and glance at when they are in doubt about policy. You’ll recall the wrist band in another format, but this one asks, “What would Quebec do?”
Because that’s where the grassroots vote resides for the opposition, the votes they cannot lose if they hope to gain power in Ottawa. The Conservatives wouldn’t reject extra seats in La Belle Province (the jurisdiction, not the fast food chain) but they don’t need them. For Mulcair or Trudeau to turf the Harpers out of 24 Sussex Drive, they need gains in Ontario and the West while maintaining their base in Quebec.
And despite the glorious history of that province’s contributions to Canada’s military in war and in peace, the vote tends to go against military engagement at the pointy end. Sure we’ll build your warships – in fact we insist – but support a conflict with our allies against a global threat? Non merci et pass the poutine.
So mark my words (another phrase that will soon disappear into the electronic miasma): the Conservatives have just won the next federal election by doing the right thing and luring the opposition into playing politics for power, because in their opinion, it would have cost them everything. And besides, they can count. The majority government will carry the day regardless, so they can fearlessly posture.
But it’s a losing game.
And we play it too, but our war in real estate is on the truth. Or statistics. No one seems to know for sure who coined the comment, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics.” (Not Mark Twain, who probably caused its popularity when he incorrectly attributed it to Disraeli. And so the Wikipedia battle goes on.)
To quote Pogo (who?): “I have seen the enemy and it is us!”
I’m afraid it starts from our grassroots and spreads to the directors of real estate boards, our provincial associations and CREA, who then echo their constituents’ requirement that nothing but good news comes from the governing body. I understand the reason – years of positive thinkers have drilled it into our heads not to watch, read or listen to the news or hang out with the “black cloud” group at the water cooler because nothing lies down that path but despair.
But when this “nothing negative” philosophy couples with bafflegab and invades our forecasting and statistics it denies the credibility we deserve. Consider these excerpts from the Sept. 15 CREA Housing Forecast:
“British Columbia is forecast to post the largest year-over-year increase in activity (11.9 per cent) followed closely by Alberta (7.7 per cent). Demand in both of these provinces is currently running at multi-year highs…In other provinces, activity is forecast to decline in the range of between one and two per cent. In British Columbia and Ontario, this trend reflects eroding affordability for single-family homes.”
On the one hand B.C. is forecast to have an increase in activity and a few sentences later, coupled with Ontario, B.C.’s trend is judged to reflect “eroding affordability.” No wonder Harry Truman demanded a one-handed economist.
I suppose CREA is demonstrating that increased activity is occurring despite rising prices, with the result that affordability may inhibit the ability of those on the fringes to purchase real estate. But so do changes in mortgage qualification rules or a rising dollar or declining employment.
We do know who said, “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” That was J.K. Galbraith, an economist. He should know.
I started this column with a rant against bafflegab. I’ll finish with the only statistic or forecast you need to know in our business. Demographer, wine consumer, poet and sculptor David Baxter offered long ago the secret to rising prices. “House prices will not go up until wages do. Low incomes equal cheap housing.”
Contact Marty Douglas by email at [email protected] . Follow or connect with Marty on Twitter, LinkedIn and Facebook. He is a managing broker for Re/Max Ocean Pacific Realty in Comox and Courtenay, B.C. He is a past chair of the Real Estate Errors and Omissions Insurance Corporation of B.C., the Real Estate Council of B.C., the B.C. Real Estate Association and the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board.
