The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2024 Second Quarter Housing Forecast yesterday.
This year, sales in the province are forecast to increase by 7.8 per cent to 78,130 units, while the association expects sales in 2025 to rise to 86,480 units.
“After a slow start for the housing market in 2024, all eyes are on the Bank of Canada. Although fixed mortgages are down significantly, it appears that buyer confidence is hinging on seeing the Bank lower its policy rate,” says the BCREA’s chief economist, Brendon Ogmundson.
”Given weak economic growth, a slowing labour market and a downward trend in inflation, we expect that the Bank will begin to loosen monetary policy this summer, which should spur some pent-up demand off the sidelines.”
The issue of price growth and supply
The association notes that with affordability challenges and prices increasing in recent months, new listings supply will need to keep up with sales. They’re confident that listings will rebound from an almost record low in 2023, which will help keep average price growth to about 1 to 2 per cent this year.
Forecast by area
Here’s how the unit sales and average price forecast looks by area.
Source: BCREA Economics
Check out the full interactive housing forecast here.
We are seeing an increase in active listings on the market back to levels prior to the pandemic ie: almost normal for a balanced market here in the North Okanagan. Relying on the BoC to lower interest rates prior to fall is a real gamble and certainly any slight reduction will not offset any increase in prices. We are actually seeing a real softening in prices with more inventory on the market and fewer buyers. Lots of subject to sale deals as well. To me, this isn’t much different than other cycles when we are coming off a real high.